Dr Paul McNeillis is a director for CSR at Achilles Information. Here he looks at how ‘black swan’ events in the world of sustainability have the power to make or break companies
No company ever truly got hurt by a supply chain scandal, or so says conventional wisdom. And there is evidence that may appear to support this: Mattel came under the spotlight in 2007 when their toys were subject to a series of product recalls in a toy safety story that simply refused to go away. The events escalated and reverberated around the business and political sphere culminating in the tragic suicide of the manager of a supplier company in China. A recent case study by the Oxford-Achilles Working Group on CSR goes into the public and the private stories of that complex case to give valuable lessons learned. However, the bottom line questions remain: Did the share price plummet? Did the brand value drop? Did sales fall long term? No.
However, things could be changing. A year ago the Norwegian national telephone company, Telenor, was caught up in a scenario that may be the shape of things to come: A factory in Bangladesh supplying the company had two deaths and audits revealed the use of child labour. That same factory was linked to them by a joint venture with Grameen phones, headed by microfinance, Nobel Prize winner Mohammed Yunnus. The two parties split with some heated mutual criticism and sustained media pressure on Telenor ensued. The debacle came close to causing Telenor real damage.
Brands are as vulnerable as they are valuable, as high street jeweller Ratner famously found to his cost in the classic incident in 1991 when he made a single supposedly light hearted speech denigrating his ‘affordable’ stock as “total crap”. The comment virtually destroyed the brand overnight and wiped £500million off the company’s value.
If such damage is possible to national brands, could a global giant be next? Why do they seem immune when there are so many risk factors and so many stakeholders watching? The answer may lie in the metaphor of the Black Swan created by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book The Black Swan. Taleb argues that almost all major scientific discoveries, historical events, and artistic accomplishments were as rare as “black swans”—undirected and unpredicted phenomenon which then came to pass. He drew an analogy in finance by arguing that banks and trading firms are highly vulnerable to hazardous Black Swan events because they fail to contemplate scenarios which could in fact be predicted. Similarly, within supply chains we start every day with a business as usual mentality that fails to spot the dangerous scenarios. There seems a reluctance to plan for that Black Swan – an unexpected, but in hindsight entirely predictable event.
In procurement the foundations for a major brand destroying scandal are already laid: NGO’s active for many years produce sophisticated and sustained critiques that cannot be brushed aside by clever PR. Consumers de-sensitised for years are starting to be presented with real choice in the market as leaders pull away from laggards and make corporate responsibility a strategic advantage. Above all else, the bottom line in global supply chains is that too little is actually really happening to prevent a Black Swan event. CSR initiatives led by small teams are not getting traction yet in procurement departments.
The scale of benefit realised by moving to low cost countries is enormous, however, scratch the surface and the investment in responsible supply chain initiatives is tiny. Only a few industry wide initiatives are really starting to pull together a global effort of sufficient scale to address the issues in a serious manner.
Put together these ingredients and the ‘unlikely’ event of a real supply chain scandal – one with devastating results – seems as plausible as the now widespread analogy of the Black Swan. It’s time procurement professionals woke up to these predictable dangers and started working with each other in cross-industry initiatives, with their colleagues in CSR and on producing change on a meaningful scale that makes an impact in the real world. Only then can they say ‘we’ve seen the black swan coming and we’re ready for it’.
The Achilles Group, headquartered in Abingdon, Oxfordshire, UK, identifies, qualifies, monitors and evaluates suppliers on behalf of major organisations worldwide. The Achilles Group’s services for sustainable procurement help create opportunities for business and reduce risk in the supply chain.




